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GBP/USD 24th Jan 2014
Quick question.
Pepe le Pip
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February 14, 2014 - 02:02
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Hello Theo,

I am paraphrasing a quote I read some time ago but I cannot remember by whom. Essentially, "One trader sees a long trade, another sees a short, and they both think they're right."

Please refer to the attached picture of your GBP/USD trade taken on 24th Jan 2014. As your video starts, I like to pause it and attempt to figure out whether you are going to take a long or short. After looking at the chart, I could only find one potential trade and it wasn't the one you took.

All the circles and lines were part of the initial analysis which I have not included in this post, but from that analysis, I made the following observations.

Market generally bullish but tending towards sideways (bullish neutral).
Possible reset of trading swings because of blue circled HH, L, LH, LL and taking out of prior higher swing high (red circle).
Possible development of broadening price pattern.
Looking for current down swing (brown swing) to either, continue to swing lows, or bounce at thin green support line and target the red resistance line.

The thin green support line is approx' midway between the red line resistance and the blue circled swing lows. A bounce off, or break
down through the green line with a target of the range boundary would not be a good risk/reward trade. The only play would be a
timing swing retracement and break down of the grey line. If a candlestick timing chart were used, a candlestick signal could be used to take an early short (pink circle).

From the above, I only had one potential trade play. I didn't consider the trade you took because the range from the light green support line to the red resistance line would have been enough to make the brown swing line the same magnitude as the current down swing and therefore the red resistance line would be a major obstacle.

I am aware that the opening of the European and London markets bring increased volatility and participation but, at least from the video, you went long on the strength of the market being bullish. Was there other analysis supporting the trade that you didn't share given the videos are available for public viewing?


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Without you (price action), I am not worth a [s]cent.

Theo Patsios
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February 14, 2014 - 02:24
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 "One trader sees a long trade, another sees a short, and they both think they're right."
How could the Market work any other way Pepe?

A very complicated drawing but I get the idea of how you are thinking, I was also keeping my eye out for a short but nothing satisfactory setup and I was not married to the idea. Before I explain this trade more though let me just say that you should never be too quick to go counter-trend. The trend is your friend is a common phrase for a reason.

Keeping in mind that this a fast level of price action on this chart, I am always watching the Daily all the way down. in order to fight this trend I would certainly not want to do after these mini range breakouts to confirm the bullish trend is still pushing. Expecting this trend to go further was also losing probability but it had more than going the other way. The time of day played a BIG role in this trade because I have been trading at this very time for as long as I can remember. It has it's own power.


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January 19, 2015 - 16:21
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is that time of day just as London market opens up? or when NewYork opens? i have read that these two times are very good for trading due to the high volatility caused by the newly opened European session running concurrently with the last hour of the Asian session? while the first part of the New York session also has the London session running at the same time. both times when i have observed great daily moves. 

hey you! remember to follow your bloody rules!

Theo Patsios
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January 19, 2015 - 22:27
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Frankfurt open is my start time, this is 1 hour before London Open. I just call it the European Open.

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