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Trading for a living
Real trading problems and solutions
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Touchdowntampa
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December 8, 2012 - 11:43
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I have been going around in circles for 5 years  now trying to figure this market out. I did all the usual and lost all my money twice and for some reason I keep trying. I like this style of trading and instead of calling it price action I like to call it trying to follow the big money. The problem I have had up until now is seeing the moves too late. I am looking at 5 min through daily and I am seeing these patterns and now to try to see them in advance. I am not lazy and spend a lot of extra time studying but maybe a mentor is needed. All responses are welcome including  criticising . Thanks all Touchdowntampa

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Theo Patsios
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December 8, 2012 - 12:31
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Hi again Touchdowntampa,

Feel free to post charts and ask questions here and hopefully we can help you. Following the big money is definitely the way to go, there is no point guessing and what we do here could also be called evidence based projection trading. Everything you do must be based on what you can see on the charts in the price action because it is not us retail traders that are driving the markets. Let the big money show you the way and join in basically... without being too late wink

There are some simple ways to avoid being too late but we will get to that using images as you post them so I can see where you are at with your trading techniques. 

I put this Forum and EFX Cash system in place recently so it won't be long before I can give you a free v1 video course upgrade then you can start collecting EFX Cash towards a VIP membership. You come across as someone who is serious about trading so you would fit right in here.

Cheers,

Theo

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Touchdowntampa
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December 8, 2012 - 16:52
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Thank you Theo for your kind response and I will try to attach a chart and maybe you could look at it and put some things in perspective for me. I want to trade very much for a living and not some pie in the sky stuff. The economy is terrible in America and I saw it coming 5 years ago and tried to become a trader before it happened. I never thought about all the scam robots and super secret $200 dollar methods. It seemed the more I tried the worse it got and I spent the last year studying on my own and some of it was price following. When I read your V1 e booklet and you mentioned getting in too soon getting out too soon and never sure of anything I said yes thats me and maybe he can show me how and why he has  this much confidence in his method. I look forward to learning more Thanks TDTBAY

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Touchdowntampa
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December 8, 2012 - 17:23
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Hi Theo , Here is a recent chart and I have added some arrows where I would have probably taken trades and I think one was possible on 11/16. Please look at it and let me know your thoughts. You will see an x near the end of the chart I was completely confused there unless I would have just maintained the trade before. I know you shoot for the next S/R for your exits or a trailing stop. Do you really have expert advisors that take these trades or do you just use them to manage the trade. Sorry to bother you so much but I have a million questions but enough** Register Here for Free Membership to see this image/link **

for now and please enjoy your week end. Regards Touchdowntampa

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December 9, 2012 - 10:16
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** Register Here for Free Membership to see this image/link **

I like to always keep in check which waves are relative to which and so I have marked this downtrends waves that were to be traded using the black lines. I have deleted 1 of your trades which I considered risky and without enough evidence based on what I can see. If I could see further to the left I may be able to justify the location but in this image I can't. I have marked in the areas of interest using the white boxes so lets start from the top.

1. The first sell is what I call a 3 point turn wave which simply means that an area was reacted from strongly and then this area was pulled back to to be retested. The inside bar once in that box was your evidence that others may feel the same way and the break of it was your entry trigger.

2. The 2nd sell is what I call a trend continuation wave (or leaning ghost) and that just means that we already have both lower lows and lower highs in stone and we are just following the trend on a very safe 3rd wave. the pullback reaches an area that was hesitated at on the way down on the previous wave that you can see as the start of my white box. The pinbar is then your evidence of this area being retested and the passing of that pinbar back down is your entry trigger.

3. The 3rd sell is another trend continuation but it is the 4th wave and starting to get less probable now so we need more evidence. In this case the fact that the 3rd wave down was much much greater in size than the 1st and 2nd waves down on the overall move shows no slowing whatsoever and only more power so the 4th wave becomes logical. The white box I have drawn in uses the 2 points of buying reaction on the down and this is our area of interest as a mirror flip SR. The candles are not very clear cut and you may or may not be able to get in to this trade. (This is the problem I found with candles and their attachment to time, VIP members use my WavEFX organic timeless charting system that I have developed over the years)

4. The 4th trade is the buy that occurs after the move starts bottoming out and provides us with that next white box that is then reacted to once again and is also setting up the break out of the trend line you have drawn in. Indecision candles show the retest of the area and then give you your entry trigger point.

When it comes to targets on all of these trades I like to keep things simple and shoot for either a 1:1 or a 1:2 risk:reward. In this chart I see 2 trades that would have been candidates for 1:2 and the rest were all 1:1 only. Once you have your entry point it means that you also know where you stop loss will go, this then means you know where your take profit will go. This is all known before you enter the trade and I have developed an EA that will do it all for you once you tell it a few parameters which takes about 1 minute. We run this EA on the EFX VPS service accessible from any device with internet and so it can be done from anywhere you like.

Hope this all helps, I don't suppose I could help you that much with just text and just this 1 post but it's a start. Fire away with any questions.

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Touchdowntampa
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December 9, 2012 - 18:54
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Hey Theo Thanks for the analysis. I have a couple of questions.

#1  Is it too early for the X at the end of the chart

#2  How are my trend lines and S/R lines

#3 Do you always wait for the pa to turn the corner and then retrace back and then wait for candle confirmation before trading

I am really talking about the beginning and the end of the chart where it reversed down and then up near the end of the chart.

I really appreciate your help and if I can make a little money at this I will be able to join your vip club and finish learning this.

I have not worked in many months and things here are not good. Even with your good price I can't do it just yet.Thanks again Sir TDTB

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December 10, 2012 - 09:49
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The X at the end of your chart provides you with an entry point on the break of that pinbar yes ...and a location that was created and returned to yes... but the scale is different from all the other trades on the chart and so if you wanted to trade that scale then your entry trigger would need to be a smaller candle from a faster chart. Using this chart you can see where your stop loss would need to go and you can see the top of the last push up which is where a smart take profit would need to go. That allows you to understand your risk vs your reward and judging by eye on this chart it doesn't look that appealing at all. By dropping down timeframe to get a faster entry and smaller stop loss you lower your risk and your reward / take profit point remains the same but you also get weaker candle signals as you drop down timeframes so you need to find your balance. On this chart I would not take that X trade and your trend lines on that part are way too pre-emptive for my tastes. To make it the right scale of wave you would want the pullback at least to the top / mirror flip area from your black horizontal line further below.

Your main trend lines on this chart and your horizontal support and resistance look great. I have slowly over the years been able to get away from trend lines and stick with only horizontal areas but I did find them very useful for a long time. The point I found eventually though is that in order to draw in trend lines you already had lower lows and lower highs or higher lows and higher highs on that wave scale so the trend was clear without them. As you can see on my version of your chart above everything was taken care of with horizontal areas.

waiting for reaction from an area and then the pullback with candle confirmation is something I ended up calling the core trade. It was my number 1 winner with the best risk:reward and so I stuck with it and it was a real turning point for me. Now that years have passed and WavEFX has been born there are ways to get into that initial reaction on your chart both top and bottom but I'll save that for later. In short though; on your above chart they would be counter-trend waves so they would need to be at great locations to follow the trend of a greater wave scale if you get my drift. 

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Touchdowntampa
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December 13, 2012 - 05:30
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I have read this post a few times and you would think after all these years I could read this book a little better. I can read it well after the fact but in real time is tough. I will spend some time just looking at 15 minute charts and do nothing except to try to read the price action at the key areas. The fed bank announced yesterday they will buy another 45 billion dollars a month mortgage debt.If the Euro zone was not hurting so bad the dollar would be worth about a dime. Bernanke has destroyed our currency and should be fired immediately . I know this method just sort of looks at news but for years I thought if one could trade a medium term strategy from the news it would be great but it simply does not work. The safe haven status changes everything. I still like to watch the news just because it moves the currency. Cheers

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December 13, 2012 - 13:58
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You are right, the news moves the markets. In my opinion though it is easier to read the reaction to the news with solid technical analysis via evidence based trading techniques. The other option is to follow all categories of economic news for all major countries... a daunting task I think you will agree. The first option has proven itself enough for me to be confident with it but I do still like to observe what time the major news releases hit because they may change the on chart evidence if it is too close to the time of entering a trade. Even then though I have noticed that the majority of the time there are clearly big players with inside info, it can't be coincidence that so often perfect evidence based setups appear to set up the news release.

This is all very hard with time based charts though which is why I developed WavEFX.

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Touchdowntampa
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December 14, 2012 - 05:16
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It seems to me if we get good news the dollar loses on risk aversion and on bad news it also loses because of fear. So really news to me is just movement and the currencies continue to go what ever way anyway. I also think there is some collusion going on with the big money traders. It seems odd that they all know exactly which direction the currency will go in a second. I read about a doctor who had a friend who was a floor trader. He talked him into bringing him in 1 day as a guest. He expected to see all this secret trading but instead they all bought and sold together through out the day. On the way home his friend said when it is going up you buy and down you sell. Thats it and I heard he died a very rich man. Easier said than done . Cheers TDTB

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Touchdowntampa
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December 15, 2012 - 06:07
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** Register Here for Free Membership to see this image/link **

My question on this chart is would you consider this area a good place to do a counter trend trade or if you like a swing trade; I see a double top at resistance  but lower is support. Maybe the 2 swings before would have been better but I am a little confused. I guess thats not really a double top after all but a re testing of resistance. This area has been tested about 3 times before and failed each time. Do you think I would be better to not do counter trades at all. Thanks Theo TDTB

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December 15, 2012 - 07:24
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You should probably stick with following the herd, CT trades are for advanced traders in my opinion. Requiring an immediate DT will keep you safest for now. You still won't win them all but your win ratio will be quite high.

 ** Register Here for Free Membership to see this image/link **

This is just one concept piece of the puzzle but you can see how even this one thing with good trade management and risk:reward could be made to work by itself.

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Touchdowntampa
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December 17, 2012 - 10:21
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Hi Theo, I have studied the power of W and M and it is very interesting but it is also very subjective. I still like them as one of my favorite set ups but with all my studies I have managed break even for the past year. Thank you for trying to help I really do appreciate it  Cheers TDTB

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December 17, 2012 - 11:12
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It can get a little subjective on Candlestick charts I agree... which is why I created WavEFX where the M and the W either is or it isn't.. and you can observe them on several levels.. no room to be subjective.

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Touchdowntampa
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December 18, 2012 - 05:23
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Thanks for the heads up on the candle sticks. I guess the candles in the right location is the real key here. I find it easier to read the w/m patterns easier to read on a line chart but that works only on the closes.I am practicing every day and I feel I am getting somewhat of a handle on this method. The currency is so slow right now it gets really hard to tell. Thank you Sir TDTB

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Touchdowntampa
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December 20, 2012 - 10:06
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Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to everyone. I wish you all joy and happiness and hope everyone has a safe and memorable Holiday. Thank you to all who read my posts and I hope I am not too boring for you.I will take off from trading after Monday and will return after the New Year. I will practice as I can over the holidays and hope to finally get it down. A special thanks to Mr Theo foe all the patients with me. God Bless to all TDTB

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marco
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December 27, 2012 - 03:55
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Hello traders.  I am considering re-entering the Forex game and am investigating my options.   I tried Forex before with no luck.

I have a few questions:

1. How long has the electrofx trading system been in existence?

2. Does elctrofx have any statistics regarding how many of its traders are making money using the system?  Are any members strictly trading for a living?

Any responses are welcome.

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December 29, 2012 - 02:44
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Hi Marco,

My style of trading has been evolving around the same price action concepts for over 5 years and this website was created over 3 years ago as a nice and tidy focused place for me to share my knowledge.

There are VIP members who are doing well and other that are still trying to achieve their goals. The important thing to remember about Trading is that everyone is a little different. It should not be about other peoples statistics as much as your own personal understanding of any given concept and confidence in it through your own study of it.

For example; I could give someone a mechanical system that has an 80% success rate and they could still fail at it by picking those 20% losers, I could also give someone a mechanical system with a 40% success rate but they are able to pick that 40% and make it a winning strategy. Obviously the first set of people would say the method does not work and the second set of people would say it did yet neither would be correct for the other. It's quite the conundrum really and combined with these others online flashing statements around is why trading education gets a bad name. 

I know this is not what you want to hear but I don't do false hope here, even though my style of trading works for me and many others it will only work for you if you are able to control your own personal psychological elements. What I can say with certainty is that from a technical standpoint my concepts are very accurate and you can see it for yourself on the charts with just a few hours study. Beyond that I provide my VIP members with the most support I can, this includes a Live Room to show my trades / give daily lessons, host weekend webinars, and of course it is also a place for members to show their trades and get feedback.

In the spirit of the holidays I have upgraded your account to the v1 level for free so you can watch the first video course. Take a look and see if my style of trading and teaching works for you or not. Just note that the VIP has come along way fromt the v1 and we have not only made things even simpler, but semi-automated also. Happy New Year

Theo

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marco
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December 30, 2012 - 05:48
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Thank you for your kindness Theo. I will watch the material this week.

From my past forex experience, I learned quite a bit, but never made a profit.  It appeared as if traders in general are quick to boast about how they can identify certain chart patterns, moving averages, were very detailed in their analysis and the rules for trading. 

However, I knew of no one who was consistently making money.  Some would have good months, days, great trades, but when asked if overall they had made money in the forex market, they would either admit that they were not profitable or avoid answering the question.  Many were perpetually on the verge of becoming profitable.

To your credit, you are the only person of many who actually responded to my question.  The responses I have received from other Forex sites: you need to try the system, that data is not relevant, or mostly no reply.

I guess people forget that the goal is not about whether you can identify a head and shoulders pattern, the goal is to make a profit.

Some say that less than 10% of people consistently earn money trading.  I would say that number is more like 2%.    If a random sample of people enter a forex trading education program and the program is good, then it only makes sense that  higher than 10% of students would be profitable.   No forex education programs I know of offers this information. 

As you can see my previous experience and recent investigation have made me somewhat skeptical of trading in general.

Thank you for your time.  I look forward to reviewing your material.

Marco

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Theo Patsios
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December 31, 2012 - 04:36
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No Problem Marco, I hope it helps you in some way.

What I have found is that a great system goes a long way but it will all boil down to a persons patience, discipline and ability to focus on it. My goal over the years has always been to simplify as much as possible without losing a good hit rate. Combined with smart money management and a simple risk reward concept you can actually make the action of Forex Trading easy, leaving only your psychology to master.

I know of several EFX members who are doing very well but I don't know what % of my members are able to make a profit. I like to think that it is a higher % than the norm but I only get to judge how each member is doing through their participation in the VIP live room.. and now that I have recently created this Forum I will be able to do the same here.

In the v1 course which I have upgraded you to you will see the way I was trading with support/resistance and candlesticks somewhere back around 3 years ago and before. Although it was effective I have since been able to eliminate candlesticks because they were attached to time and actually limited your ability to catch some moves. The concepts remain the same to this day, you don't change what works you just try and tweak it and progress. But thats all for later discussion anyway.

Enjoy the material and your new year celebrations,

Theo

 

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