September 20, 2013
My first posting related to a potential setup I see based on the S/D bands, this one being an EU counter-trend short from the 15min Demand level with a pin-bar / BEEB combination, with the potential of 1:3 RR if the target is the next Supply level down. Also lines up with the 1hr / 4hr / 1day Demand bars, but as I say is counter-trend.** Register Here for Free Membership to see this image/link **
This is very much counter trend with bare minimum confirmation of the area provided by the M15.Â
Personally I would prefer more confirmation from the higher timeframes than I am currently seeing.
That said, some traders have a higher risk threshold than me and may be happy with it.
Your target is very ambitious if you decide to take this trade,
1.3600-1.3606 is riddled with mirror flip S/R (obstacles) and would make for a more realistic target.
September 20, 2013
Yes it was a "risky" one and obviously didn't work out this time, but I'd observed that often price will bounce between these bands (like EU yesterday) after giving a good candle (pin bar etc), counter-trend as well, and if there is a big enough gap between them then a very nice RR can be arrived at and it is worth taking them, and am looking at whether this can actually be traded successfully. And as I say price was also within the higher TF demand bands as well, or that's how I saw it.Â
Perhaps the times I've observed them have just been lucky and that more thought needs to go into the trades, guess I'll find out soon enough after posting up another few as they happen / as I would have traded them!!
In this game of probability though there is not much point in attempting a trade that works out less often than it loses. The trade you pointed out today does sometimes work out, I agree, but not as often as it fails. About 4 years ago or so I would have also liked that trade but through experience I have learnt to be patient and stay away from fighting such a fierce trend without seeing some slowing. Today right before I had answered your post I mentioned in the live room that I was looking for a pullback buy and any selling was a long way off for me. I have let the market teach me this over time and the only way I could have justified selling that area based on how we arrived back to it would have been an H1 scale of Double Tap with Entry Trigger or higher.
Ultimately everyone has their own risk appetite though and I try not to tell people what to do, just what I am doing and how I see things.
Hope this helps,
Theo
September 20, 2013
Whilst not a setup on EU 15min as such as the setup ** Register Here for Free Membership to see this image/link **
candle wasn't really a pin, it does quite amaze me how price bounces between these S/D bands!!mshand said
Thanks Theo, I don't mind being told what to do as part of the learning process!! When you say you'd only have taken a sell off the 1hr based on how we arrived back, what do you mean by that please?
I think my meaning was lost in text as if often does... all I meant was that even if I am telling you what I am doing and how I am seeing things, you need to learn to be confident in your trade decision making process instead of learning how to listen to me... if that makes sense.
As for the H1 comment I just meant that whilst you were looking for an immediate double tap with entry trigger on the M15 I would have required one on the H1 to be fighting such a trend that you were looking to fight at that time.
mshand said
candle wasn't really a pin, it does quite amaze me how price bounces between these S/D bands!!
Whilst not a setup on EU 15min as such as the setup ** Register Here for Free Membership to see this image/link **
A good small trade on the M15 and whilst I would always suggest mastering the H4 as a minimum before attempting such trades here is a quick analysis.Â
I would always read your layout like a book, from left to right.
Starting with the Daily I see that we are counter trend at a box with indecision candles,
then on the H4 I see things are getting messy,
when I move to the H1 I see the clear trade that we had already had before the one you are pointing out,
you see how we had a double tap confirmation of that area on H1 with trigger candle (left isde of your H1 chart).
That ends up being what I was talking about before with regards to what I would need to fight such a trend.
As we move forward on that H1 chart though and look at your trade you see how it is also the double confirmation tap of the box in question BUT it follows a higher low. This means we are consolidating at that H1 level and the trade on the M15 is just a very small one with low expectations. A small trade to tie you over and with small risk and small reward, very much a 1:1 type of trade for me.
As for these S/D, S/R boxes, you will find that price always bounces between these bands due to the laws of order flow, no big player presets their trades at random locations in the middle of nowhere, they are all playing probability just like us so orders will be set at areas now visible historically. Your job is to learn to read the Market Structure and determine which bands are most likely to be the ones that are reacted from based on how price arrives at them.. and then use entry triggers to confirm that you are not alone.
Theo
VIP Members
October 28, 2013
** Register Here for Free Membership to see this image/link **
Hi Theo,
For the first time trying to upload.....hopefully it works.
To make apologies first....It's a printscreen of my live-account....so it's still on Renko, as I am in the transition (haha). hopefully you'r still willing to follow my line of thoughts.
Today I placed and pending sell stop, based on the following thought.
- lower low as to determine downtrend
- waiting for retrace
- on the following bearish brick, pending stop is placed.
So for me this would be expecting a sell on a downward trend
After installing your indicators etc. it looks like they're trying to convince me that a trade to the opposite should be taken.
So two opposite signals and " no clue".
Please your help and explanation.
cheers
GG
Cheers and keep the pips floating.
Generaal Goudvis
** Register Here for Free Membership to see this image/link **
It is hard for me to make any real decisions based on 1 month of data as per that screenshot. That said I do think that is a prime location for another buying wave based on what I do see. The lower low you are talking about is a longer term deal, based in this 1 month picture I would expect a bounce here up to one of the 2 red lines with regards to potential reaction points for the sell. The other scenario that could play out is if it drops below both o those boxes and has a mini pullback you could play the breakout of the area. The sell that you have set is right in all the support zones which is not something I would ever do.VIP Members
October 28, 2013
Thanks for your feedback.
I have installed the set of indicators and script to the three currency pairs I trade.
EURJPY, EURGBP and EURUSD. all based on Renko 10 brick size.
But to be honest on I am still doubting whether your Price Action is working better on H4 than on Renko. I see benefits in the extra information the candles produce (CeC etc. which you don't see on Renko) but also Renko calms the eye and filters out a lot of " noise".
By the way took the BUY-trade...and knowing you don't give trade recommendations...it's on my own risk (and reward )
GGÂ
Cheers and keep the pips floating.
Generaal Goudvis
First I have to say that I feel that Renko is much better than Candlesticks for clarity,
with the exception for the Daily Chart and above.
(once you go that high Candlestick charts don't have that much noise anyway)
Secondly it is my opinion based on many years experience that the same pip size renko does not apply to the 3 pairs that you mentioned. The EUR/JPY is much more volatile/spikey and has a different size renko than the EUR/USD, and the EUR/USD has more movement than the EUR/GBP which also results in a different pip size renko between the two.
All of the above is why I ended up developing a simple organic formula off of M5,M15,M30,H1,H4 that dictates renko size on a pair by pair basis and checks itself every night at midnight.
Renko charts are timeless movement based charts and so my conclusion was that the size of the blocks must be based on each pairs current volatility and that must be constantly monitored.Â
VIP Members
October 28, 2013
And that to me makes perfect sense. As i have been testing and struggling with the brick size...as it also determines your reaction and strategy.
This software: to whom is it available? Because that would be useful to me.
For the other part: How do you see Renko also being unable to detect CeC and pin bar tradin (at least most of it)?
cheers
GG
Cheers and keep the pips floating.
Generaal Goudvis
I use 2 renko charts that are both on the organic sizing system,
1 is what is called the main chart of the 2 and essentially cleans up and replaces the H4 pace.
The 2nd is what I call the entry trigger chart giving me more easy to read evidence based wave structure entries at a faster pace.
This entry trigger chart replaces the need to trade the candlesticks themselves.
The concept and software with detailed video course is available to v1 Members,
I have also taken things much further than the v1 course and that is the VIP level providing the latest progressions made, a VPS account with high level EA automation, a live room with 3 session outlooks per day + webinar Sunday. The VIP basically allows you to cram 8 years of live trading experience into as much time as it takes you to get through all the material.
Cheers,
Theo
The following users say thank you to Theo Patsios for this useful post:
Generaal_GoudvisSeptember 20, 2013
I've not had the time to post up as much as I'd intended due to work (I'm in Nairobi for 2 months kicking off a new project) but am still very much "involved" in the ElectroFX system, and plan to upgrade to the next level as soon as I can focus back into trading again. Nevertheless I've always got the charts up, with the S/D bands and observing the 15min reactions to them primarily, and using the "left to right" approach as you described Theo, and the awesomeness of the free indicator alone keeps showing what a great systems it is. Here is what I see as a great example of price reacting "first time back" to an older 15min Demand area here with a nice pin bar, which is also a 4hr Demand area. Has done just over 1R so far, based on an approx 22 pip SL, so time will tell whether it makes it down to the main Supply area.....** Register Here for Free Membership to see this image/link **
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