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Learning Forex the Electrofx Way
results of strategies applied in practice, sharing some trades, thanking the founder of the site. discussing the methods described here as they relate to trades
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WeeMee
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January 19, 2015 - 12:39
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 Learning the ElectroFX Way

 

first i would like to just say a big huge THANK YOU to Theo for all the amazing information he has made available here. it's a true treasure trove. i have already gone over some lessons 2 times, i intend to go through them all from beginning to end once again though. i had many AHA moments while going through those lessons. the information presented really helped me to understand what's actually going on on the chart. 

 

i'm a pretty much brand new trader, if you can even call me that at this point, lol. apprentice trader maybe?

 

anyway i'm from Switzerland and have only recently discovered the amazing potential of forex. i mean yeah i knew banks did forex trades, but had no idea about the leverage available to retail traders which actually makes forex feasible even if you are not a multi millionaire, yet...

 

i am planning to use this thread as a bit of a record of my journey on the way to becoming a consistently profitable trader. so far i have the basic plan, as time goes on and i learn more, i plan to integrate the new know how into my over all trading strategy. i hope to share my successes as well as failures here with you.

 

this site has already taught me a bunch, from explaining the candle sticks and their exact meanings when found in certain areas, to seeing where those certain order flow zones are, where a turn is possible with a good entering pattern. new know how about order flow support zones helped me make a quick 30 pips today on my small learning account. it was really the first time that i was able to look at the eurusd chart and realize that 1.1635 was as high as it was gonna get this evening, allowing me a nice short. i entered it by placing an order at the price where i saw other big orders getting filled..........as planned, it hit my entering price and went down from there pretty much straight to my conservative profit target of 1.1605, first plan was to go for 1.1585, but as i have a slight draw down on my account at this time, i wanted to reduce my risk. turned out perfect as price stalled at just after hitting my tp. 

 

basically i saw those long tails leading away from that 1.1635 price, that i knew if price went there again the same guys would be jumping in again, this time with my trade riding their shadow, lol. maybe it was coincidence, i intend to keep studying and practicing with the smallest positions my broker allows. 

 

for now i just wanted to thank Theo, like i said, electrofx is an amazing place, has really opened my eyes about certain aspects of trading.

 

i can't wait till i get my new windows lap top set up with meta trader so i can use that awesome levels indicator, also the wave indicator looks like an awesome tool. alas for now all i can do is add the heavy order flow zones in myself. i have of course tested myself without entering trades and i must say my trade finding eye has become pretty darn good. of course for now i am only trading eurusd, so i have become very familiar with it. this helps make it a bit easier.

 

anyway thanks for letting  me share my thoughts a bit, will help solidify stuff in my head too.

 

have a great trading day.

 

WM

all trades shown so far by me, are on a demo account.

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January 19, 2015 - 22:23
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Hi WM,

Welcome to ElectroFX, I'm glad you are finding the lessons useful. In short; I discovered a long time ago that it is the big money that moves the markets, not us! So why not juts ride their movements by using their actions and reading the order flow. Fundamentals move the big money which moves the markets, solid technical analysis allows you to read their reaction to the fundamentals. In my opinion this is MUCH easier than learning to read all of the macro-economics involved in any pair of currencies. I consider what I do with technical analysis 'evidence based trading' with no guesswork. Everything remains defined, everything is done for a reason. You still can't win them all but you can win more than you lose, add-on a good risk:reward strategy and you are golden.

PS. I remember when I first found Forex, I was like you, I couldn't believe you could actually do this from home. Even when I made my first chunk of money it didn't really set in until I withdrew to my bank account and it actually showed up. I then went and withdrew the money so I could hold it in my hand, sounds stupid but I just needed to see and touch it.

money

Best,
Theo

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January 20, 2015 - 05:30
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Good Day Theo,

 

you got it spot on about not believing any of this till  i can withdraw something, hehe. of course i still need to actually make some money. i do think i'm on the right track though. i noticed today that my eurusd trade yesterday would have even made my less conservative target of 1.1585.

 

anyway thanks for the feed back and encouraging words, don't see anything great on the eurusd right now, i am starting to wonder if we have reached close to the bottom? not that i will trade against the bigger trend till i see the full reversal confirmed. for starters i told myself; no more trading against the larger trend. i do see opportunities after large moves some times where one can be 99% sure of at least some correction, but only after big moves into a clear order flow zone after it shows a nice turning pattern. in fact thats my job for today, re reading the section about the patterns. want to get used to recognizing them and what they mostly mean.

hope everyone is having a profitable day, or at least no losing trades cool

all trades shown so far by me, are on a demo account.

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January 20, 2015 - 05:40
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sorry for the double post, but i just saw what seems an interesting trade on the usd jpy, we have a nice indecision candle followed by a lower opening candle. stop loss could be very tight, if you look left on the chart you see others have made big orders at that level to sell before. entry would be 118.632, stoploss 118.95 take profit i suppose conservative would be 118.05

 

PS: decided to do it with an order to make sure price was actually gonna go down. so i didnt enter this as i'm really only doing eurusd live at the moment, but it will be interesting to see how it develops.** Register Here for Free Membership to see this image/link **

EDITED TO ADD: well so far this trade isn't doing quite what i expected, a lot more orders in the way of my target then i expected. i wonder if this isn't the kind of situation where one would close early? or possibly put the stop loss at 1 pip TP? this is part of trading i have the least idea about. when to jump out of a trade if it's taking longer or going a more round about route then expected. when i see all this consolidation i wonder if it will be able to bust through it to my target.** Register Here for Free Membership to see this image/link **

 this is how it went so far.

second update: trade has gone into the red territory, still hasn't broken the high that started me on this test trade, but it no longer looks as straight forward as it did when i first test entered it. looks like it will not be successful.

all trades shown so far by me, are on a demo account.

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January 21, 2015 - 04:43
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wow, got a surprise today, it looks like the usdjpy trade would have actually worked out perfectly. regret that i didn't enter it now :)

check out what happened to the price. i didnt find any trade that i liked on my learning pair eurusd. but what i love about this usdjpytrade is it really shows how reliable those patterns are. this trade shows me that it's better to wait for confirming patterns, not just entering with a candle signal in a order flow zone? ** Register Here for Free Membership to see this image/link **

all trades shown so far by me, are on a demo account.

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January 21, 2015 - 18:12
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did a couple of practice trades today, plus a small eurusd sell for 18 pips.

 

here another one that i entered for real and i'm wondering if that can be called a turning pattern? or is that just consolidation before it continues the down move?

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while this one looks like its forming into a double tap reversal? this is a practice trade. as you can see i entered it before the double tap had formed. impatient as ever, i really have to write down my exact rules i think before i go much further. i get the feeling now i got it and then realize i didnt think things all the way through. anyway any experienced members that feel like chiming in,  feel free.money

 

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all trades shown so far by me, are on a demo account.

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January 21, 2015 - 22:25
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WeeMee said
this trade shows me that it's better to wait for confirming patterns, not just entering with a candle signal in a order flow zone? 

A candle signal must be used in conjunction with a pattern, this is the whole concept of evidence based trading. Let the big money flow, read how it is flowing and then just join in. No need to try and pick tops and bottoms based on a single candlestick.

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January 21, 2015 - 22:32
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WeeMee said
i do see opportunities after large moves some times where one can be 99% sure of at least some correction, but only after big moves into a clear order flow zone after it shows a nice turning pattern

Most people lose at this game and most people try and pick tops and bottoms, use silly oscillators like macd and stochastic etc, and/or expect that because they see a large directional move there will be a correction. I think that tells it's own story.

Using a pattern based entry with trigger won't usually get you in at the top and the bottom, but at least it is based on something real and by its nature follows a trend of some kind, even if it is a very short term onewink

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January 22, 2015 - 06:46
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it's so funny you should say that because even though i read you saying not to do that, i was still subconsciously trying to do just that, ie. finding tops and bottoms, just instead of being completely blind i was using the order flow levels, so thanks for pointing that out. i will work up a set of rules for myself, you did also recommend that, i just thought i'd keep it all in mind, but in the heat of the moment so to speak it's quite hard to do. specially for a beginner.

some crazy stuff going on with the euro since the ecb press conference. the bummer is i was in a sell trade and took profit after a ridiculously small move. only to watch it move over 100 pips down, ouch! specially after that trade yesterday cost me 26 pips.

all trades shown so far by me, are on a demo account.

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January 22, 2015 - 07:12
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Here is a bit of a mind bender for you cool

Could of, would of, should of... is not the right mindset.
If you have a complete trading plan then you know where your entry price is, where your stop loss is, where your take profit will be, and what you risk:reward is, BEFORE you even enter a trade. So with that in mind there are no pips left on the table and it is not ouch at all. Did you get the target you were aiming for risking the amount you planned to risk? If so then who cares if it goes further and you 'could have' had more? You won a trade and are waiting for the next setup... end of story!

This is just advice btw, I am not giving you a hard time idiosmile

These thoughts you just had are no different from the ones I used to have and every other trader on the planet, I even still have them occasionally but these days it is more out of interest than any ouch feelings.

Theo

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January 22, 2015 - 08:13
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what you are saying is logical. if i cry after missed pips i'll never be happy.

 

it's amazing though, i find myself in a battle with myself, i want to trade and have the chance to make money, so i end up rushing things. thats why i'm gonna work on the set of rules, or a check list.

 

it's like, i see fast moves and think oh wow look what i'm missing, so yeah i totally see the need to get some of these emotions out of making trading decisions. so i just opened up the patterns section again for a start, no more jumping in on order flow levels alone :)

i know you like the ghost, double taps and mirrored retouches on the order flow zone, i also saw you describe a zig zag turning pattern, but i need to restudy that to make sense of it.

 

what i'm wondering is if you also use triangles, channels and flags etc?

 

is there a time frame you recomend to trade in for eur usd for example? ie: daily, 4 hourly, or hourly, or 15m? i have been trying to decide direction on the higher frames and then choose entry, tp and sl, at the lower time frame. 

 

thanks for your feedback, it's much appreciated. will be able to use your free indicators very soon. just need my mate to make my windows machine internet safe.

 

edited to add: yeah i wish my euro sell trade today was one where i made a target and let it reach the target. i set very handsome target and chickened out after only 15% of the way, only to see it reach way lower then my goal. so yeah if i'd have left it, i would have no reason to be annoyed at myself. the event being news driven is what scared me off, silly me, not even much money involved, just this thing of wanting to win and not have a win become a loss. yeah back to my reading and compiling my check list and rules.

all trades shown so far by me, are on a demo account.

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January 22, 2015 - 09:09
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well this is what i have come up with so far, i still need to familiarize myself much better with the way the various patterns will show up on the charts. the only safe solution will be to trade a demo account till i can see and read the patterns in my sleep so to speak. anyway check out my:

 

   
          Rules to Enter a Trade and Questions to Answer Before I Enter

1. What is the over all,big trend? (always check larger time frames for the big trend)

2. Do I have a signal, i.e. entering pattern, at an order flow area with a confirming candle set up?

3. What price will I enter the trade at, why?

4. what is my stop loss, why?

5. what is my profit target and why?

6. what is my total risk to reward? is it at least 1 to 1 or more?

7. which entering pattern am i using to confirm the trade

8. what candle stick formation additionally confirmed the trade for me?

9. is my trade respecting the order flow zones, do i have space?

 

edited to add: i was wondering if you ever use orders to confirm your decision so to speak? like if you see a formation and think price should break out of it in a certain direction, do you ever place an order out in front of the price so to speak? you would lose a few pips but be getting a kind of confirmation about the correctness of the direction?

 

btw: nice double bottom forming on the eurusd as we speak on the 15m chart, but yeah thats a counter trend trade which i'm actually not really allowing myself on my real account anyway. also the pattern might change into a continuation pattern, who knows at this stage where the bottom will be for the eu.

all trades shown so far by me, are on a demo account.

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January 24, 2015 - 15:49
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good day all,

here is an interesting head and shoulders in the making on the usdjpy daily chart. might give some good trades, once it actually makes it all the way up to the right shoulder. or would you focus in on the double top on consecutive daily candles and treat it as a sell from where it is with the correct entering candle entry? or would one look at the 4 hour and hourly to see if the patterns on those scales were confirming the sell?

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interestingly enough the head and shoulders seems to be present again on the 4h and even on the 1 h chart. trouble is the down move might well be finished when you look at the angle of the formation. 

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here the hourly

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all trades shown so far by me, are on a demo account.

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February 8, 2015 - 09:23
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hello again everyone that might possibly read this at some point, lol....

 

anyway had some ups and downs in my live trading recently, thought i'd cracked it a couple of times only to realize i was not quite there yet.

 

the usual thing is happening, i am making profit with 2 demo accounts, but my real account is back to 7% draw down after getting it up within a 1% of the starting amount. so yeah quite depressing. only reason i'm not down further is that my account manager told me to short gbpusd just before nfp. but yeah that another story, point is, i'm going back to studying. am learning how to operate a windows machine so i can finally instal meta trader and use the great indicators and scripts Theo kindly provided here. hope i can figure it out, finding windows very counter intuitive when compared to operating a mac, bt thats neither here nor there.

 

i will update this thread as i make progress. will probably end up going vip membership, for now i'm studying the basics of charting, from moving averages, eliot waves, trend lines and fibonaci levels as well as studying up on what exact rules apply to using various patterns. even just drawing a trend line is not much good if one doesn't follow the rules everyone else is about drawing them.

did a few hours of random back testing with Theos method of going back to a random pint in the charts history, then starting to trade from the last candle on the right. i found myself making a good few hundred pips profit if i just use candle stick entries on a 4 hour time frame with a generous stop loss. was quite amazing to see how easy it was to make trades with 100 pips and more profit. i think this is probably the first thing i have to change, no more trading small time frames unless it's the right direction for the bigger time frames main trend anywyay.

 

i have a trade running on the eurusd right now, so far  it's 150 pips in profit, it's a sell. i set my stop loss to 100 pips now so what ever happens i will gain at least 100 pips and maybe it will end up being 299. time will tell. i noticed that zulutrader has a broker that provides incredibly good spreads and you can choose the leverage at any time to change it. they also allow micro lot trading so you can practice with less, but the great thing i like is i can open various positions and manage each one separately on the same pair, i can even hedge trades if i want. this also allows me to open a few small positions and close the first 1 at 1/1 letting the second run for free so to speak. some demo accounts they just average out your trades for the same pair.

 

anyway, still working on this, lets hope i can make some better trades this week.

 

WM

all trades shown so far by me, are on a demo account.

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February 8, 2015 - 23:19
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couple of notes after reading your post...

I have a macbook pro for when I travel and my multi screen PC at home, I actually dislike the Mac for trading on IOS even though there are MT4 for Mac patches, they just don't seem to work the same. When I do use my mac I just use remote desktop software to connect to my windows VPS and have the best of both Worlds.

Demo is always easier than live which is funny because you are not doing anything different on the technical side of things, it proves just how tricky the psychological part is. Still, you have to start somewhere and if you can't make consistent profits on a demo then you have no business trading live. Only when your demo shows consistent profits you should be moving to micro, making sure you can do the same and then slowly increase your trading size to grow with the experience, slow and steady wins the race.

Relying on account managers and trading news events is not something I would ever advise but each to their own.

Have a great trading week,

Theo

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February 10, 2015 - 09:48
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Theo Patsios said
couple of notes after reading your post...

I have a macbook pro for when I travel and my multi screen PC at home, I actually dislike the Mac for trading on IOS even though there are MT4 for Mac patches, they just don't seem to work the same. When I do use my mac I just use remote desktop software to connect to my windows VPS and have the best of both Worlds.

Demo is always easier than live which is funny because you are not doing anything different on the technical side of things, it proves just how tricky the psychological part is. Still, you have to start somewhere and if you can't make consistent profits on a demo then you have no business trading live. Only when your demo shows consistent profits you should be moving to micro, making sure you can do the same and then slowly increase your trading size to grow with the experience, slow and steady wins the race.

Relying on account managers and trading news events is not something I would ever advise but each to their own.

Have a great trading week,

Theo

thanks a million for your feed back, i really appreciate it.

 

i noticed that the reviews for mac patches to run mt4 are all prety crap. so yeah i'm gonna have to get the hang of windows for my trading. mt4 will also allow me to keep on demo trading.

i hear you on keeping on with demo trading till i can make a consistant profit with my demo account. how many months should i be profitable before i start doing deals with 0.1 of a micro lot? i mean thats only a few bucks risked per trade at that size, depending on stop loss. don't you think it's beneficial to trade live with such small positions just to start training the psychological aspect of trading?

 

i hear you on account managers, but i have to say he has helped me a lot so far, my account is actually 4% in profit today, he called me up and told me to sell 100 barrels of oil right now for 50 bucks tp, i did it on the phone as i was out the house and by the time i got back the trade was closed in profit. it's been a month or more and he is slowly convincing me that he really does want my account to grow. at the start i was skeptical and didnt follow his tips, but with time he is proving himself, so yeah, it's hard not to use his tips when they are as concrete as they some times are. although i think he has the ulterior motive of trying to get me to fund the account with more serious money, the question is will he be as helpful when he has gotten me to upgrade the account. he tells me that my present balance is not enough to risk trading stocks and commodities and that only trading currencies puts me in a slightly higher risk category then accounts that trade a combination of stocks, commodities, futures and forex. does he have a point?

 

i still want to learn how to do the trades myself, so i might open a separate account for me to learn on, but yeah, no rush, need to keep doing the demo accounts profitably for at least a few months first. no point doing what most do and blowing my first account. 

all trades shown so far by me, are on a demo account.

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February 10, 2015 - 22:47
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You can move to micro lots pretty fast because you are only dealing with small money, I always say master your trading plan on the backtester so that you know it inside an out, then verify that you can be patient and wait for the trade setups on demo, then go straight to micro and start building.

Account managers can be great and it sounds like he has done you well. My main point is that it is much better to 'learn how to trust yourself to trade' as opposed to 'learn to trust and listen to someone else' who won't always be there. I have no idea what the motives of any account manager are but I can say that I prefer currencies over stocks ten fold. As for commodities you can trade them with Forex and you don't need a larger account than when trading currencies (I trade GOLD in the same MT4 I trade EURUSD). Just control your position sizes based on your leverage, margin requirements, and individual trades stop loss.

Too many people lose all of their risk capital before they learn, they are eager to make money and this is understandable. However, what's the point in being eager to lose your money? because that is what will happen. The real problem lies in the internet and all the internet marketers who are full of shit. Get rich quick guaranteed success plans and traders who made stupid amounts of money in minutes are the claims/ads, these claims are made by internet marketers who have clearly never traded in their life, it all sounds like a great way to get people to lose their money and make commissions off of them while they do. Trading is no get rich quick plan, and it is no easy journey. It's a get rich slowly plan for those that can wrap their head around it and it will take years to truly master. I can't sugar coat it like those guys I'm afraid!

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WeeMee
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February 11, 2015 - 09:40
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well it turns out he had ulterior motives after all, he was only showing me the service he will give if i add 10k.

 

so yeah, not doing that. prefer to learn how to do it myself even if it takes a year or 2.

 

back to studying and demo trading for now. hopping for the eu to drop today, same with gbpusd.

all trades shown so far by me, are on a demo account.

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February 13, 2015 - 10:26
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i know it's a bit off topic, but i want to update the situation, so after leaving me to stew a bit,  account manager called again yesterday, this time buy gold, firm order amount and firm tp. so i went for it, slightly less then he said and a slightly closer tp. after going against me over 6 bucks over many hours, price finally turned a few pips above what he told me would be the lowest it would go. this morning around 7am it hit the tp. this guy seems to be a magician, lol. i'm playing with the idea to let him keep giving me tips on that account while i continue my education on demo account. im up 13 % now on that account, all thanks to my account manager. to be honest i keep expecting the next trade to be the one where he is wrong.

 

anyway, i also tried my own weird strategy yesterday, i did like high frequency buy and sells, always for 5 pip tp with 500 pip stop, only eu pair and it's amazing how well it worked so far, although i do have a bunch of sells open that are in minus right now, but with time they will get to tp i'm sure, problem is meanwhile i have big draw down. but considering what i have observed in this market, prices move in cycles, and sooner or later they come back, within reason anyway, but yeah it's too risky as a real strategy, sooner or later there will be a move so big it will blow the account before it returns close to the price you entered at. too much like gambling, was fun trying it though and if the eu does what it's been doing recently i will be in the green in a few days, even with this simplistic approach. either that or the demo account will get blown as the eu climbs back to 1.50 - 1.60 without touching the  1.1290 which will clear all my open sells.

 

edited to clarify

all trades shown so far by me, are on a demo account.

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February 13, 2015 - 11:06
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Gold was an easy one to read today but I don't doubt your account manager,
It was what I call a long term level 1 trigger, high level of evidence behind it basically.

I think the real questions you should ask yourself are,
do you want to have to reply on an account manager?
what happens when he is no longer around?
wouldn't you prefer to be your own magician?

As for the rest of your post it sounds like you are entering the trap that every trader on earth has once entered, thinking that you can hold positions without a stop loss because the market will always come back. Well, it probably will a whole bunch of times, until it doesn't. It's a long term losing idea and the way to be successful is to have reasons for everything that you do, then rinse and repeat. With the correct plan you will have an entry trigger and setups that give you entry price, stop loss, take profit, risk:reward ALL before you enter. I probably sound like a broken record repeating this over and over again but it is what it is.

Have a great weekend!

In case it helps, you can check out just some of this weeks trades here:
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